A worrying finding was that the 2007 year class had suffered heavy losses on all beds surveyed in both the summer and early winter of 2007. Average densities had fallen from 135/m² in August to only 20/m² by December. The reason for this is unknown, but it is not related to fishing as a similar decline was recorded irrespective of whether the beds had been fished.

The low adult stock, and the fact that a single year class now dominates the population, is a cause for concern. Adult cockles are still present in densities that should allow for successful reproduction, but if there is not substantial recruitment this summer then we could be in for many years of low stocks. Cockles in Morecambe Bay rarely survive beyond their third year, and by 2009 the adult stock is likely to be reduced to densities low enough to compromise breeding. The success of the 2008 settlement will therefore be vital to the immediate future of the population.

Irrespective of the strength of the 2008 spatfall, it is apparent that the fishable stock will be very poor by September 2008, and it is therefore unlikely that Morecambe Bay will support a cockle fishery at all in the winter of 2008/9. A full survey of all the beds will be carried out in the summer so that management decisions can be taken before the next cockle season.

1.2 Traeth Lafan

Traeth Lafan was surveyed in July and August of 2007, and it was found that the cockle population was in a healthy state, with a good representation of several year classes and signs of good recruitment of the 2007 year class. The total population was somewhat reduced from the previous year, but still averaged almost 100 adults/m² over an area of 3½ha, a good half of the total bed area. The growth rate of cockles at Traeth Lafan is quite slow, certainly compared to most of the Morecambe Bay beds, and consequently quite a high proportion of the adult stock was below the Committee’s minimum landing size. This small average size, combined with a reduction in the market value of smaller cockles, resulted in little fishing activity at Traeth Lafan this winter. Several groups of gatherers have visited the bed this winter, but a sustained fishery such as happened in the 2006/7 season has not been economically viable. However, if survival of the 2006 year class is good, then a significant fishery is possible next winter. A full survey of the Traeth Lafan cockles will be carried out during the summer closed season.

1.3 Cockling Elsewhere

There has been little cockling carried out on other beds in the District. The stocks in the Duddon and Ribble Estuaries are at very low levels. Cockles are present on many of the small beds around Anglesey and North Wales, but not in commercial quantities. Some fishing has been seen on the south side of the Dyfi Estuary, but effort here has been low, commensurate with the stock situation.